Can Andy Burnham Beat Reform in Makerfield?
· news
Can Andy Burnham Beat Reform in Makerfield to Take on Starmer? Here’s What the Data Shows
The decision by Labour’s National Executive Committee to clear Andy Burnham to stand in the upcoming by-election for Makerfield has sent shockwaves through the party. The implications of this move are far-reaching, affecting not only Burnham’s prospects but also the future direction of Labour under Sir Keir Starmer.
Burnham’s popularity is undeniably a key factor in his candidacy. According to YouGov polling, he boasts a 35% positive opinion rating, significantly ahead of both Starmer (19%) and Wes Streeting (12%). This suggests that, were he to stand in Makerfield, he would have a strong chance of winning the seat – one crucial for Labour’s fortunes.
The decision to stand in Makerfield has been framed as a bold move by Burnham. However, it also raises questions about his motivations. Is he genuinely interested in representing the people of Makerfield or using this candidacy as a means to an end – establishing himself as the most viable alternative to Starmer?
Recent local election polling from Survation provides some insight into these dynamics. In Gorton and Denton, the Green Party secured 41% of the vote while Labour trailed behind with just 25%. If Burnham had stood as Labour’s candidate in Makerfield, however, the party would likely have taken 47% of the vote – a significant boost that could see him win the seat.
The rise of the Green Party in the region poses another challenge for Labour. With Zack Polanski’s party set to field a candidate in Makerfield, concerns about a split progressive vote are growing. This could have serious implications for Labour’s chances and Burnham’s ambitions.
The cost of this by-election will be substantial, estimated at up to £226,000. The added expense of a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester could potentially run into millions, placing a heavy burden on taxpayers given the uncertain outcome.
As Josh Simons noted, “it’ll be a really tough fight.” But it’s also one that could change the course of Labour’s history and pave the way for Burnham’s own leadership ambitions. The question remains: is he willing to take this risk?
Reader Views
- RJReporter J. Avery · staff reporter
Burnham's bid for Makerfield poses a classic Labour conundrum: can he win on his own merits or does the party's electoral prospects rely too heavily on anti-Starmer sentiment? The data suggests Labour stands to gain from Burnham's involvement, but at what cost? The significant increase in vote share hinted at by Survation polling comes with a caveat - if it holds true, would it be due to Burnham's personal appeal or simply the tactical voting of disaffected Starmer supporters? The answer lies in scrutinizing not just the numbers, but also Labour's internal dynamics.
- ADAnalyst D. Park · policy analyst
The true test of Burnham's candidacy lies not in his popularity, but in his ability to mobilize Labour supporters and capitalize on the party's weaknesses. The article notes the Green Party's surge in local elections, but fails to address the elephant in the room: Labour's own disorganization and lack of grassroots engagement in Makerfield. Unless Burnham can effectively pivot Labour's strategy and appeal to disillusioned voters, his chances of success remain precarious, even with a strong personal brand.
- EKEditor K. Wells · editor
While Burnham's numbers are undoubtedly impressive, we can't ignore the elephant in the room: Labour's abysmal track record on local engagement. Despite the party's claims of grassroots renewal, Makerfield residents have consistently reported feeling disconnected from their local representatives. Can Burnham truly expect to succeed where others have failed? His decision to stand should be seen as an opportunity for Labour to get its act together and genuinely engage with constituents – rather than simply trying to win a seat at any cost.