Has the Army Turned the Page on Control of Western Sudan?

The Sudanese army’s recent counteroffensive in western Darfur has yielded significant gains against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group. The strategic importance of the Bir Saliba region cannot be overstated, as its network of roads links West Darfur state capital el-Geneina to areas in the northwest.

The RSF’s inability to encircle Bir Saliba and secure a key supply route is a telling sign of their weakening grip on the region. The loss of Major General Mahdi Adam, one of the RSF’s most prominent field commanders, would be a significant blow if confirmed. However, this does not necessarily signal an end to the fighting but rather a change in tactics for both sides.

The Sudanese army’s use of air strikes and drone warfare against RSF supply lines has proven effective, isolating the paramilitary group and preventing them from regrouping their forces. This raises concerns about the increased reliance on military might to resolve conflicts in Darfur, despite international warnings of a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Sudan.

The displacement of over 6,650 people from 11 villages in the Sirba region is just the latest grim reminder of the war’s devastating toll on civilians. The total number of displaced persons since April 2023 stands at an estimated 13 million, according to UN estimates. Neither side has a clear strategy for ending the fighting or protecting the people caught in its crosshairs.

The RSF’s shift towards using drones as a compensatory measure highlights their predicament on the ground. Their inability to engage in direct confrontations after losing vital positions shows the army’s success in limiting their movement and disrupting supply lines. This has led some analysts to suggest that the RSF may be retreating from key positions, but it remains unclear whether this signals a strategic shift or merely an attempt to regroup.

The complex web of alliances and rival administrations at play in Sudan adds to the confusion. The Tasis government, established by the RSF and its allies, operates in opposition to the Sudanese government based in Port Sudan. The lack of clear communication channels between the warring parties and external stakeholders raises questions about how this conflict will be resolved.

The army’s gains have come at a high cost for civilians caught in the crossfire. The international community must continue to pressure both sides to find a peaceful resolution to this conflict, lest the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding before our eyes becomes a permanent fixture of life in Darfur.

For every military gain made by the Sudanese army, thousands more people are forced to flee their homes, adding to the staggering total of displaced persons since April 2023. The international community’s inability to prevent this humanitarian disaster raises uncomfortable questions about its effectiveness in resolving conflicts.

As the battle for control of western Sudan rages on, both sides will have to confront the human cost of their actions if they hope to find a lasting resolution to this devastating conflict. Ultimately, the only question that matters is not who controls which region or territory but how many more lives must be lost before peace can be achieved in Darfur.